Analysis | Belmont Stakes odds, post time, positions and analysis (2024)

Seize the Grey, by virtue of winning the Preakness Stakes, made sure there would be no Triple Crown winner in 2024, holding off a late charge from Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan at Pimlico. Still, there should be plenty of interest in this year’s Belmont Stakes, which will be held Saturday at iconic Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., amid renovations at its traditional home, Belmont Park.

Aside from the rematch between Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan, a few other Kentucky Derby runners will be looking for revenge. Sierra Leone, who lost by a nose to Mystik Dan in a three-way photo finish at Churchill Downs, is in the field. So are three others: Resilience (sixth in the Kentucky Derby), Honor Marie (eighth) and Dornoch (10th). The smaller track of Saratoga, however, means the race will be held at 1¼ miles instead of the traditional 1½-mile test of a Belmont champion.

Favorites, such as Sierra Leone (9-5 on the morning line), win this race more often than usual and account for 66 of 155 (42.6 percent) winners overall. Typical favorites win one of every three races.


Post time: Saturday, 6:41 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox

No. 1 Seize the Grey (8-1)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Jamie Torres

Fresh off a front-running win in the Preakness Stakes on a muddy track, Seize the Grey returns to where he won his maiden race, going 6½ furlongs in the slop. He has shown he can win over a fast, dirt track, too, with a pedigree suited to carry his tactical speed 10 furlongs.

No. 2 Resilience (10-1)

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Resilience drew one of the outside posts for the Kentucky Derby and was part of the action early before fading to sixth and losing by 7¾ lengths. Previous to the Derby, he won the Grade II Wood Memorial by 2¼ lengths. That victory was impressive enough to win here.

No. 3 Mystik Dan (5-1)

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Mystik Dan is in line to be the first horse to compete in all three Triple Crown races since Max Player in 2020. However, he still hasn’t produced the level of speed figures we would like to see on a fast, dirt track. His two best speed figures came on a muddy track.


No. 4 The Wine Steward (15-1)

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Manuel Franco

The Wine Steward’s career started with three straight wins: He prevailed by 6½ lengths in his debut and then claimed two stakes races. After that came three straight second-place finishes. His latest runner-up venture, at the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes last month, came against Antiquarian.

No. 5 Antiquarian (12-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

A win in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes gave Pletcher the confidence to enter him here against other talented 3-year-olds. He is the second stakes winner and first graded-stakes winner for his sire, Preservationist, who won the Grade I Woodward Stakes at Saratoga in 2019.

No. 6 Dornoch (15-1)

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Jockey: Luis Saez

The two-time graded-stakes winner finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby after a bad trip took him out of contention early. His front-running style and pedigree — grandsire Curlin is a two-time horse of the year — set him up well in a less-crowded field such as this one.

No. 7 Protective (20-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher


Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Although he has not won in four career starts, Pletcher’s colt did manage a third-place finish in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes and ran third in the Grade II Wood Memorial before that. Still, it’s hard to place money on a horse looking for his first win during the third leg of the Triple Crown.

No. 8 Honor Marie (12-1)

Trainer: Whit Beckman

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Honor Marie finished eighth with a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby but is bred well for the classic distance of 1¼ miles. He’s the son of 2015 champion older dirt male Honor Code and the grandson of A.P. Indy, winner of the 1992 Belmont at its traditional 1½ miles. His dam, Dame Marie, is a daughter of Smart Strike, the sire of two-time horse of the year Curlin and champion turf male English Channel.

No. 9 Sierra Leone (9-5)

Trainer: Chad Brown


Jockey: Flavien Prat

Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone took advantage of a fast pace in the first leg of the Triple Crown, much as he did in winning the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes. This son of Gun Runner will need a similar situation here to prevail, but I am not sure he will get it. There are only two true front-runners in the field (Dornoch and Mindframe), with the rest content with stalking the pace.

No. 10 Mindframe (7-2)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Mindframe, a Maryland-bred son of Constitution, has won both of his starts, prompting Pletcher to move him up in class against some of the best 3-year-olds in the country.

“He obviously has enormous talent, but he’s run in a maiden race and a mile-and-a-sixteenth allowance race,” Pletcher told the Daily Racing Form. “He’s running against the best 3-year-olds in the crop. They’re all more seasoned and more experienced than him. It’s asking a lot, but you’re talking about a horse that’s not only winning by impressive margins but running pretty fast times as well. [Speed] figures suggest he certainly fits with the top of the group.”

Analysis | Belmont Stakes odds, post time, positions and analysis (2024)
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